Degree Classification Statistics UK 2026: How Many Students Really Get a First?

In 2023-24, 28.8 per cent of UK-domiciled, full-time first-degree graduates at English higher education providers were awarded a first-class degree — the third consecutive annual fall, down from 33.3 per cent in 2021-22, yet still nearly double the 15.8 per cent of 2010-11 (Office for Students, sector-level analysis published January 2026).

That single series is the story of modern UK degree classification: a decade of steep rises, a pandemic peak, and a managed retreat that has so far given back only part of the climb. Every figure below is from the OfS analysis and its accompanying release unless stated otherwise, and each is written to stand alone if quoted.

The key figures at a glance

What does “unexplained” actually mean?

The OfS builds a statistical model of the graduate population using explanatory variables such as subject mix and entry qualifications, then asks what proportion of firsts those characteristics would predict if awarding behaviour had stayed as it was in 2010-11. For 2023-24 the model predicts 17.7 per cent; the observed figure is 28.8 per cent. The 11.1-point difference is what the regulator labels unexplained — equivalent to nearly four in ten of the firsts actually awarded.

Unexplained is not a synonym for illegitimate. The OfS itself lists genuine improvements in teaching and learning among the possible causes, alongside factors that would count as inflationary — changes to degree algorithms and assessment practices. The label means the sector’s own data cannot distinguish between those explanations, which is precisely why the regulator keeps publishing the series and warning providers about algorithm design.

Why do classification algorithms keep coming up?

Because they are the mechanism through which identical marks can produce different degrees. A classification algorithm decides which module marks count, how years are weighted, whether the best credits are selected and how borderline candidates are lifted. Two universities can take the same transcript and classify it differently, and a rule change — discounting the lowest-scoring credits, widening a borderline zone — raises award rates without a single essay improving. That is why the OfS names algorithm and assessment changes among the possible inflationary causes and directs attention to how providers design them. For a student the practical reading is simple: your degree outcome is governed by a published set of rules, and reading your own institution’s classification algorithm in second year — before module choices are fixed — is worth more than any sector statistic.

Is the fall since 2021-22 a correction?

Partially. The combined first-and-upper-second rate fell for a third successive year to 77.2 per cent in 2023-24 — but the decrease from 2022-23 was 0.4 percentage points, smaller than the previous year’s fall, and the rate remains 9.7 percentage points above 2010-11. First-class awards alone remain 13.0 points above 2010-11. On the current trajectory, the sector is retreating from the pandemic peak slowly, and to a plateau well above the pre-2010s baseline rather than back to it.

What do these percentages cover — and what do they not?

Scope matters when you quote these numbers. The OfS analysis covers UK-domiciled, full-time first-degree graduates at 142 English providers that awarded classified degrees; it excludes part-time and international graduates and does not cover Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. UK-wide classification data across all four nations is published separately by HESA in its annual student statistics bulletins, with the 2024/25 release published in January 2026 — if you need a UK-wide or single-nation split, take it from HESA’s own tables rather than applying the England figures to the whole UK.

One more scope note that students searching this topic often want: classifications end at the taught level. Research degrees are pass/fail examinations — a PhD is never awarded “with first-class honours” — and the outcome architecture at doctoral level looks entirely different, as the data on UK PhD viva outcomes shows.

Three ways students misread these statistics

First, treating the sector average as a personal probability. Award rates vary by subject, provider and entry profile; the 28.8 per cent is a description of a population, not odds assigned to you. Second, reading the fall in firsts as marking getting harsher this year in every department — the retreat is a sector-level trend produced by many separate institutional decisions, and your department’s marking may have moved in either direction. Third, assuming the boundary work is spread evenly across assessment. It is not: coursework marks bunch, and the classification is disproportionately decided by the pieces of work that carry the most discriminating weight, which in most degrees means the final-year project.

What does a first actually take?

The statistics describe the distribution, not the recipe, but the two connect in one useful way: as the share of firsts and 2:1s has grown, the discriminating work has moved into the final-year project. Coursework averages cluster; the dissertation is where marking criteria still separate bands sharply. The components markers consistently reward are a defensible method — argued, not asserted, in the methodology chapter — a literature review that synthesises rather than catalogues, and analysis that answers the question set. Length is not one of the criteria: the word budget is fixed by your department, and as our survey of dissertation word counts across UK universities found, what counts inside it varies sharply by institution.

It is also worth saying plainly what the data does not support: no published dataset shows that using any particular tool, service or shortcut produces a first. What raises the probability is time on the parts markers weight — design, synthesis, analysis. If drafting speed is what limits your time on those, Tesify can help you structure and draft your dissertation around your own research — 100% written by you — so the hours go where the marks are.

How to cite these figures

Attribute the England classification series to the Office for Students’ sector-level analysis of degree classifications (published January 2026, covering 2010-11 to 2023-24), and note the population: UK-domiciled, full-time first-degree graduates in England. Attribute UK-wide totals to HESA’s Higher Education Student Statistics. Do not mix the two in a single sentence without saying so — they differ in both geography and population, and the difference is visible in the numbers.

Frequently asked questions

What percentage of UK students get a first-class degree?

In England, 28.8 per cent of UK-domiciled full-time first-degree graduates received a first in 2023-24 (OfS, January 2026). UK-wide figures including Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are published by HESA and differ slightly by nation.

What percentage get a 2:1 or above?

77.2 per cent of the same population received a first or upper second in 2023-24, down from 77.6 per cent the year before (OfS, January 2026).

Are firsts still rising?

No — the proportion has fallen for three consecutive years, from 33.3 per cent in 2021-22 to 28.8 per cent in 2023-24. It remains far above the 15.8 per cent of 2010-11.

What is grade inflation, in this context?

The part of the rise in top degrees that cannot be accounted for by changes in the graduate population. The OfS models expected attainment from entry qualifications and subject mix; awarding above that prediction is labelled unexplained, and in 2023-24 the gap was 11.1 percentage points.

Does “unexplained” mean universities are handing out unearned firsts?

Not necessarily. The OfS lists improved teaching and learning among possible causes, alongside algorithm and assessment changes that would be inflationary. The honest reading is that the published data cannot separate the two.

Was the pandemic the peak of degree inflation?

The series rose considerably between 2010-11 and 2020-21 under no-detriment policies, and 2021-22’s 33.3 per cent firsts marked the start of the decline. Every year since has fallen, which the OfS describes as significant progress while noting how far above 2010-11 the sector remains.

Is a 2:2 a bad degree?

A 2:2 sits below the median in a distribution where 77 per cent receive a 2:1 or above, which is a labour-market disadvantage for schemes that filter at 2:1. It remains an honours degree, and plenty of employers and postgraduate routes accept it, particularly with relevant experience.

Do postgraduate degrees have classifications like firsts?

Taught master’s degrees typically use distinction, merit and pass rather than honours classes. Research degrees such as the PhD are pass/fail examinations with corrections categories, not classifications.

Where can I find classification statistics for a specific university?

HESA publishes qualifier data by provider, and the OfS complements its sector-level analysis with provider-level reporting. A university’s own annual quality reports sometimes break classifications down further by subject.

Which subjects award the most firsts?

Award rates differ substantially by subject, which is exactly why the OfS controls for subject mix in its model rather than comparing raw percentages between disciplines. For subject-level rates, use HESA’s qualifiers tables for the year you need rather than a sector average.